The rules of the game are same…

I tend to chat up taxi drivers whenever I am travelling, and get some earthy home brewed wisdom in return. I will come to these nuggets of wisdom time and again.

There was this time I was in a taxi in Amsterdam, and struck up a conversation.

“I lived in Bombay (now Mumbai) for some time.”, said the taxi-driver.

“What! You must have found life here completely different after your experience in Bombay.”

“Naah! There’s no difference. Bombay or Amsterdam, it’s all the same.”

“Bombay or Amsterdam… same…?”

“Ya. Bombay or Amsterdam, the rules are the same. If you do not work…, you don’t get food to eat.”

Yours truly,

Vivek Shroff (vivekshroff@mac.com)

TOI reports ‘Chocolates healthier than most fruits’!!!

I refer to the Times of India dated 8th Feb.

I quote :

Wow! This sounds good! But wait, don’t grab the chocolate bar just yet…

Yikes! They are comparing the cocoa powder with powder made from the poor fruit! And then you claim that cocoa is better than fruit. Now, now, how ridiculous can you get. Next, they are going to claim that cocoa powder is even more valuable than Sachin Tendulkar.. oh! powdered Sachin Tendulkar that is.

A fruit is not some inanimate element with static properties, which would be the same regardless of drying or grounding. It reverberates with life, and in keeping with its biotic nature, goes stale or bad as time goes by. Making a dry powder from it, negates the whole idea of a fresh fruit. It lays waste to its vitamins and anti-oxidants. That’s why processed food is such a sham.

The guys making this claim with a straight face – supposedly ‘scientists’ at the Hershey Center for Health & Nutrition in the US – well the less said about them the better. They join the hall of fame of the economists rooting for lesser regulation for Goldman Sachs, the climatologists arguing why global warming is just a blip, and the doctors arguing why cancer tests proved to be useless are still necessary.

But the journalists reporting this, could we not expect them to be a wee bit more vigilant, or are they too…

Yours truly,

Vivek Shroff (vivekshroff@mac.com)

Cricket bettors or suckers?

Today’s Times of India lists the bets being offered by the bookies (prominently Ladbrokes’) for bettors wanting to stake their fortunes on their predictions for the winner of the World Cup.

Like, say, India’s odds are 11/4. So if a bettor bets Rs. 4 on India, then if India wins, he receives Rs. 11 plus he gets back his Rs. 4 – total Rs. 15. So the “cost” of betting on India is 4/(11+4) i.e. 0.2667. If the odds are a/b, then the “cost” is b/(a+b).

I have totalled the “costs” of betting on all the main contenders. A little bit of thinking will reveal that if the total “cost” is 1, then it means that by betting Re. 1 uniformly across all the options, I am guaranteed a return of Re. 1. This would mean that there is no additional cost being imposed by the bookie.

However, we know that in reality, the bookie needs his daily bread, and the bettor always starts out at a disadvantage. Typically in betting centres like Las Vegas and Macau, the dice is loaded in favour of the casino – the minimum being just above 1% for Baccarat and 3-4% for Blackjack and Roulette. If the casino doesn’t play a game, it typically takes 3% of the winnings. This pays for the airconditioning and the hors d’oeuvres (and the hostesses).

So far, fair enough. So what is the cost imposed by the bookies for cricket betting? Here are the odds offered and their reciprocals which represent the cost of betting on that particular team : India 11/4 (0.2667), Sri Lanka 4/1 (0.20), South Africa 4/1 (0.20), Pakistan 8/1 (0.1111), Australia 9/2 (0.1818), West Indies 20/1 (0.0476), England 8/1 (0.1111), New Zealand 20/1 (0.0476), and Bangladesh 66/1 (0.0149). I have ignored the rest. The total cost comes to 1.18. I.e. in order to earn a rupee, I need to wager Rs. 1.18!!! By betting a lac, I can get a return of only Rs 84,750, luck ignored. The bookie is imposing a cost of more than 15%!!! Without needing to pay for the airconditioning…

So next step for the gamblers… Macau? Or better still, just meet up with one of your ilk, play some loud music, and toss a coin. At least you would have had the satisfaction of getting the betting ‘cost’ down to zero.

Yours truly,

Vivek Shroff (vivekshroff@mac.com)

ObamaCare causing unemployment?

I came across a blog post by Scott Lincicome “frustrated libertarian” on “ObamaCare and America’s Global Competitiveness”. He argues that ObamaCare is forcing healthcare industry players to look for ways to operate more efficiently, and consequently, is causing outsourcing to India. Also, a sympathetic comment on the blog stated that the healthcare sector is generating the maximum employment growth.

I produce below, my comment to this blog entry :

Yours in samvit,

Vivek Shroff (vivekshroff@mac.com)

India – Industrialized nation -or- Third world commodity supplier?

I came across the figures of country-wise production of cotton, and consumption of cotton for production of cotton yarn. Here they are :

The last column denotes whether the country is a net producer of cotton as an agricultural commodity, or it is importing cotton to feed its industry. Pakistan with a GDP of 162 billion US dollars, has put up spinning capacity to consume 2.20 million tonnes of cotton.

India in contrast, with a GDP of 1,236 billion US dollars (as per IMF 2009 figures), is not industrialized enough to even consume its own cotton!

Time for policy makers and industry associations to wake up?

Yours in samvit,

Vivek Shroff (vivekshroff@mac.com)

Do neckties cause global warming?

Well, yes and no.

Neckties originated in the first half of the seventeenth century in Paris, thanks to the Croatian mercenaries in the French army.

Both Croatia and France are having colder climes – with the maximum temperature below 20℃ for most part of the year, and rarely exceeding 25℃.

Even today, neckties are more of a staple uniform for the western nations.

For companies in these nations, heating bills are a major fuel expense. Ties, by keeping in the body heat, help to save on these bills as the office then does not need to be heated to a high enough temperature so that open collars are comfortable. Thus by reducing consumption of fossil fuels, ties are aiding the environment.

In contrast, in India, air-conditioning cooling bills are a major fuel expense. By wearing a tie, we are forcing the air-conditioning to run even stronger. Check out a company where all the guys are trying to copy IBM’s dress code. My bet is, the AC thermostat is set to 20℃. Can you imagine those gooey cholo-fluoro-carbons heading straight up – just raring to be a part of the greenhouse effect?

My take? If the weather outdoor is anywhere above 20℃, do Mother Nature a favour. Dump the tie.

Yours in samvit,

Vivek Shroff (vivekshroff@mac.com)